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铁路投资危与机

编辑:语际翻译     2011-8-15         转载请注明来自  语际翻译公司 http://www.scientrans.com

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  Railway Investment: Problems and Solutions

  运营初期的还贷危机、合资线路的先天不足以及运营过程中可能遭遇的种种不公平待遇,都是有意于中国铁路的投资者需要考虑的难题the debt pressure in its initial operational stages, the born deficiency of the co-financed lines and the potential unfair treatments in the management, all those above mentioned should be taken into account for investors intending to invest in China’s railways.

  作为中国迄今为止规模最大的一条合资铁路,京沪高速铁路历经十余年漫长的争论、研究、博弈后,终于开工在即,由此再次引发了业内外对投资中国铁路的兴趣。

  Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway would be the largest joint investment railway in the country upon its completion. After more than 10 years of careful examination and research, construction of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway will start soon. And it has obtained great attention from investors.

  中国合资铁路最早可回溯到上世纪80年代。由于铁路投资期长,回收慢,加之中国铁路尚未实现政企分开,建设经营过程中困难重重,尤其是在涉及定价、调度及与铁道部收益分成等问题时,往往容易引发各种矛盾。

  The experience of China’s joint investment railway can be traced back to the 1980’s. At that time, the investment in railway would last a long period and the return would be quite slow. What’s more, because the railway system hadn’t separated government functions from enterprise management, great difficulties emerged one after another. Such issues as tickets price, ordering management and distribution of benefits would easily arouse conflicts between state railway ministry and private enterprises.

  所以,中国合资铁路发展缓慢。截至2006年底,合资铁路营业里程仅为0.89万公里,占全国铁路营业里程的11.5%。

  China’s co-financed railway is progressing at a quite slow speed. As of the end of 2006, the full length of co-financed railways was just 8.9 thousand km, occupying 11.5% of whole railway mileage.

  但这种缓慢的发展格局,正在铁路“跨越式发展”的大目标下面临瓦解。

  But now China is piloting the policy of the great-leap-forward development, which will gradually break such bottleneck.

  根据“十一五”规划,到2010年,中国铁路营业里程要达到9万公里以上。近两年,铁道部力推合资铁路发展,专门成立了中国铁路建设投资公司,并先后与30多个省、市、自治区签订了合资建设铁路的战略合作协议,组建了武广铁路客运专线有限责任公司、唐港铁路有限责任公司等一批合资铁路公司。

  According to the 11th 5-Year-Plan of Chinese Railways, the total mileage of railways will surpass 90,000 km by 2010. In the past two years, China’s Ministry of Railways (MOR) has made great efforts to experience co-financed railways. For this purpose, China’s Railway Investment Company (CRIC) was established. MOR has signed Strategic Cooperative Agreements with more than 30 provinces, cities, and autonomous regions, establishing a batch of joint investment railway companies such as Wuhan-Guangzhou Special Passenger Line LLC, Tanggang Railway LLC., and so on.

  越来越多的投资者,包括民营资本,正在加入这股铁路投资大潮,但他们面临的各种难题与先期进入的铁路投资者们一样:如何度过漫长的还债周期,以及如何在铁道部大一统的调度安排中找到合适的运营模式。

  More and more investors including private capital are joining in the joint investment in railways. But they would confront with the same problems as those pioneering in this field: how to get through the long period of loans repayment; what kind of operation system they would adopt in a “Big Bang” (large and unity) scheduling management of MOR.  

  「还贷危机」

  The Crisis of Loans Repayment

  国家开发银行(下称开行)是铁路建设的主要参与者之一,几乎经历过铁路投资不同阶段的各种难题。据开行营业部副总经理马健介绍,铁路新建线路回收期很长,短则三五年,长则十年左右,运量才能规模增长。“而在投产初期,亏损十分正常,一般都需要‘输血’。”

  China Development Bank (hereinafter CDB) is one of the major investors of co-financed railways. It has almost experienced all of difficulties in different investment stages. Ma Jian, vice general manager of CDB’s Business Office, said that the payback period would be very long. The volume of traffic would increase in a large-scale after 3 to 10 years. “In the initial stages, investment companies are always in debt and need more investment.”

  铁道部经济规划院的调查显示,新建铁路亏多盈少,其中,亏损线路占60%,盈利线路占40%。而在全部盈利线路中,85%是上世纪五六十年代修建的,亏损线路中73%为上世纪八九十年代修建。而铁道部独资的铁路线路之所以能够保持100%的还本付息率,主要得益于用全路征收的铁路建设基金统筹还款,以盈补亏。

  An investigation conducted by Economic Planning Institute of MOR revealed the majority of the new lines were in debt. Deficit lines accounted for 60%, and the rest were profitable. However, 85% profitable lines were constructed in the 1950’s and 1960’s, and 73% deficit lines were constructed in the 1980’s and 1990’s. The reason why state-owned lines could maintain 100% debt service was that they had been subsidized from overall financing of railway construction.

  而合资铁路通常是“单枪匹马”,一家公司只有一条路。在没有其他保障的情况下,合资铁路公司的贷款偿还只能依靠本公司的运营收入,因而在运营初期极易出现还贷危机,甚至收入连当年运输成本和贷款利息都不能偿付。“每年不仅不能消化部分负债,反而形成一定数量的新债,变成恶性循环。” 马健告诉《财经金融实务》记者。

  Most joint investment railway companies are single-handed. Each company has just one line. Without any other investment, they rely greatly on company’s operational income to repay loans. So the debt pressure would easily build up in initial operation stages, even the income could not pay back transportation cost and loan interest. “Each year they can’t not only digest part of debts, but a number of new debts will be formed. It is a vicious circle.” Ma Jian told reporter from Finance Series.

  例如,三茂铁路建设贷款偿还期限多为3年-5年,通车两年后,自1993年起进入还贷高峰期,仅1995年到期贷款就达8.8亿元。企业的运营收入只能还贷1.9亿元,其余都要借新债还老债。而新借商业贷款利率高于基建贷款,且需支付逾期罚息。到期贷款越重,续贷越难;逾期越多,罚息越高,资金运用陷入被动。

  Take Sanmao Railway Co. Ltd. for example. The maturity is always 3-5 years. After two years of operation came the peak of redemption since 1993. Only in 1995, the due loans amounted to 880 million yuan (yuan here refers to RMB yuan, hereinafter), but the operational income could pay back 190 million owned, and the rest of debts should be repaid through new loans. However, the interest of the new commercial loans is higher than that of infrastructure loans. What’s worse, the penalty interest will be accrued if the due loans are not repaid. The more due loans, the harder it is to get new loans. The more overdue debt, the more penalty interest will be accrued. It is another vicious circle.

  开行是中国铁路项目贷款余额最大的银行。截至2005年3月底,开行合资铁路贷款项目20个,余额189.8亿元,占全行铁路行业贷款余额922.72亿元的21%。同期,开行合资铁路不良贷款项目有5个,贷款余额64.5亿元,共欠息3.3亿元,占全行不良贷款总额的40%。受合资铁路不良贷款影响,整个开行铁路行业贷款不良率达到7.6%,而同期全行不良贷款率低于1%。铁路行业的不良贷款为各行业中最高。

  CDB owns largest amount of outstanding loans of China’s railway projects. By the end of March, 2005, there have been 20 co-financed railways and 18.98 billion outstanding loans, accounting for 21% of all 92.272 billion outstanding loans of railways. At the same time, there have been only 5 bad loan projects. The total outstanding loans of those projects were 6.54 billion yuan (and the interest is up to 330 million), occupying 40% of the total non-performing loans (NPLs). Influenced by the NPLs, the railway NPL rate reached 7.6%, while the whole NPL rate was less than 1% during the same period.

  「先天不足」

  Born Deficiency of Co-financed Railways

  合资铁路的债务风险与其自身特征密不可分,除了“一条新线打天下”造成的势单力薄,合资铁路还有其先天不足。

  The debt risk of the co-financed investment railway is closely related to its characteristics. Besides the disadvantage of one line, other congenital deficiencies contributed to it.

  通常情况下,合资铁路的兴建都是出于地区经济开发的迫切需要,建成之时沿线经济尚不发达,所以,建成初期,甚至在此后的很长一段时间内,难免运量不足。

  Usually, the initial motivation to construct co-financed railways is out of urgent need of regional economic development. Upon the completion, economy along the lines is still underdeveloped. So in the beginning operational stage, (even a long period after that,) the low volume of traffic is foreseeable.

  部分合资铁路的线路、设备与国铁(指铁道部独资建设的铁路,为现有铁路网中的主体)差距较大,难以与国铁网络纳入一体化经营,因而无法通过大规模集散增加运量。

  What’s more, the lines and equipment owned by some investment railway companies are quite laggard compared with MOR (refers to those constructed by MOR alone, which are principal part in existing railway network). So it is hard to massify co-financed lines and state-owned railway network. Therefore, the transportation capacity can’t be increased by means of large-scaled collection and distribution.

  由于建设资金紧张、债务沉重,很多合资铁路往往降低标准,意图先“简易通车”,运营盈利之后再投资改造,但是,事实上,项目甫一建成通车即遭遇还贷压力,合资双方大多不愿意再注资。广西沿海铁路、阳涉铁路建设时节约投资,日后运营成本却大大增加。

  Due to heavy debts and the lack of capital, many joint investment railways lowered construction standard aiming to “operating first” and then improve the railways after making profits. In fact, as soon as the lines start its operation, companies will face the pressure of loan repayment. Both sides of co-financed companies are unwilling to invest more in improvement. Guangxi coastal railways, Yangzhi railways are example of the kind.

  资本金比例偏低的问题在合资铁路中普遍存在,原有项目的资本金比例一般在35%-65%之间,近几年新上项目要求在50%左右,但仍不能摆脱合资铁路整体负债较重的局面。

  Most joint investment railways companies are short of registered capital. In the past, the ratio of the registered capital was 35-65%. In recent years, though the ratio is required to increase to about 50%, block debt is still a restriction for further development of joint investment railway companies.

  资本金不足更加剧了运营现金流 “前低后高”的痼疾。运营初期,公司往往不能达到还本付息要求,需要股东追加投资或补贴还款。

  The shortage of registered capital worsened the existed problems of funds from operations (FFO), that is, at first, the registered capital was small, and then more investments and subsidies would be required. So in the initial operational stage, companies could not repay principal and interest, and additional investment and subsidies are required from shareholders.

  然而,项目建成后,由于缺少补充资本金的有效机制,各股东方进一步出资的意愿不强,股东担保也不能真正履行,这使得合资公司始终处于信用状况差、资金紧张的状态。“本来前景好的项目都可能被拖垮。”马健告诉记者。

  However, upon the completion of the railway, for the reason of shortage of efficient mechanism for additional investment, shareholders are unwilling to do further investment and shareholder guarantee can’t be fulfilled. As a result, those companies are notorious for their bad credit. Correspondingly, the shortage of capital can’t be solved. “Even a promising project would be dragged down.” Ma Jian told the reporter.

  平南铁路公司即为一例。其建设方案原本计划投资3.28亿元,几经变更后增加到10亿元。到2003年,平南铁路总资产9.71亿元,负债总额8.57亿元,资产负债率高达88.3%,年付利息额达6400多万元,公司难以为继。

  Ping Nan Railway Co. Ltd. is of such kind. The planned investment was 328 million yuan. But the number increased to 1 billion after several changes. As of 2003, the total assets of Ping Nan Railway Co. were 971 million but the debt was 857 million. The asset-liability ratio exceeded 88.3%. Annual interest amounted to 64 million. So the company couldn’t be unsustainable.

  「不公平竞争」

  Unfair Competition

  “与民航、公路等其他运输方式相比,铁路的特点决定了它大约在400公里-800公里的运距上具有优势。”国务院发展研究中心产业经济部部长冯飞告诉记者。但合资铁路能够获得的线路与此相距甚远,并由此导致了对国铁的强烈依赖性。

  “Compared with other transportations such as air and road transports, railway’s own characteristics maintain its advantages in the aspect of transporting distance ranging from 400 to 800 km.” Feng Fei, department director of Industrial Economy in Development Research Center of the State Council, told the reporter. But the mileage that joint investment companies possess is far shorter than this so they still rely greatly on MOR.

  目前,合资铁路平均里程不足280公里,一般不具有规模效益,在短途运输服务上无法与公路竞争,很大程度上需利用国铁的网络规模,通过为国铁干线集散运量,获得自己的收益。

  At present, per mileage of each co-financed company owns is less than 280 km. So those lines haven’t scale merit. They cannot compete with road transport in short distances transportation and largely depend on state-owned railway network. They obtain their own profits by means of collection and distribution for state-owned trunk lines.

  处于同一路网上的合资铁路与国铁本应平等竞争与合作,但里程短、位置偏、等级低的先天不足注定了合资铁路在路网中的劣势地位,客、货运输必须依靠国铁路网才能有所作为。一般而言,两端与国铁主干线相连的合资铁路运量和收入持续增长;位于国铁主干线延伸线上的合资铁路公司,运量和收入就会有波动。

  Generally, in the same railway network investment railway companies should have equal competition with state-owned railway companies. However, co-financed lines are short, and they are located in remote regions. Moreover, their lines are underdeveloped. Those born deficiencies condemned them to an inferior position to state-owned ones. Either freight or passenger transportation can only be achieved with the aid of state-owned railway network. Generally, investment railways whose two ends are collected to state-owned trunk lines will benefit from increasing volume of traffic, while transportation capacity and profits will fluctuate for those in the extended state-owned trunk lines.

  “合资铁路公司的运量和收入不仅与其在铁路网上的位置和地位有关,更与国铁对其分配的上线、上网运输能力和清算价格密切相关。”一位铁路业内资深专家告诉记者。然而,调度、清算等种种“裁判”权力仍然掌握在与合资铁路同为“运动员”的国铁手中。由于列车运行图与列车编组计划为全国统一编制,合资铁路的过轨、排空、接重、运量分配、车流径路和“限制口”装车量等,均纳入当地铁路局编制的运输计划,服从国铁的集中统一指挥,合资铁路基本没有支配力。在这种制度安排下,地区铁路局不可能为了顾及合资铁路经营机构的效益而损失自己的运输量或运输市场。“在线路存在竞争时,国铁会优先让自己‘吃饱’。”上述专家如是说。

  “The transportation capacity of and profits from investment lines are not only related to their location in the railway network, but interrelated with distributed volume and liquidation price.” A senior insider expert told the reporter. But the power of scheduling and liquidation is in the hand of MOR. For example, the train chart and marshalling plan are compiled uniformly by the MOR. The mutual transportation, evacuation, load capacity, division of traffic, wagon routing and limited-entrance loading of the co-financed railways are incorporated into transport planning, obliged to MOR’s centralized and unified management. The co-financed lines have no any allocation power. Under such management, the regional railway bureaus will not consider making profits for co-financed lines without taking their own interests into account.  “In the competition, state-owned lines will satisfy their own needs first,” above-mentioned expert said.

  大部分合资铁路所在地区的经济尚不发达,对异地物资的需求远小于将本地丰富的资源发送出去的需要,因而,货运量的发送量远大于到达量,但由于调配权掌握在国铁手中,某些合资铁路有货运不出去的情况屡见不鲜。

  Most regions where co-financed lines located are underdeveloped places and their demand for exotic goods is smaller than that for supplying goods to other places. As a result, the volume of freight dispatched far more surpasses arrival capacity. However, because the power of deployment is controlled by MOR, such situations as not being able to deliver goods out are often the case.

  在与国铁交易的过程中,合资铁路申请列车难以满足,整列空车通过还要收取货车占用费,得不到“运行图资源”的优先权,如此种种,屡见不鲜。

  In the corporation with MOR, co-financed railway company’s demand for trains will not be satisfied. Even an empty train occupying state-owned lines will be charged occupancy expenses. And co-financed lines cannot get priority of using railway network.

  北京交通大学教授荣朝和总结说,“任何由外部投资者建设并连接在国铁网络上的线路与设施,都可能由于国铁的自利动机而在行车指挥权方面受到歧视对待。几乎所有的地方铁路和国铁未能控股的合资铁路,都在与国铁系统的车流交换方面遭受过排斥,造成客货流与运输收入被迫流失。”

  Professor Rong Chaohe with Beijing Communication University concluded that “all co-financed lines and equipment which connects to state-owned railway network will be discriminated in terms of scheduling for the reason of self-interest of MOR. Almost all regional railways and those co-financed lines which are not controlled by MOR have been excluded from vehicles exchange with MOR, causing great loss of transportation capacity and operational income.”

  在清算关系上,国铁与合资铁路的运价政策和环境也并不一致。二者定价权决策部门不同,上下浮动权的标准各异,双方价格浮动决策的层次和程序也有差别。国铁通常按去向、品名享有价格优惠,合资铁路则按区域制定运价政策。

  In terms of liquidation price, the freight rate and environment are different between co-financed and state-owned lines. The pricing decision-makers are different, so the standard of fluctuations is various, and grades and procedures of fluctuations are different, too. State-owned lines enjoy competitive prices according to goods and delivering destination. While co-financed lines are charged according to zone pricing.

  此外,国铁代理合资铁路的运输进款缴纳、客运自营收入和货网清算收入时均收取手续费,而合资公司代收国铁各项收入时,其货运收入部分无法得到足额补偿,手续费清算政策不对称。

  Besides, when acting for co-financed lines, MOR will charge agency commissions of transportation revenue payment, self-employment income of passenger transportation and liquidation income of freight transportation. However, when co-financed lines act for state-owned lines, their freight traffic revenues are always not fully compensated. And the policy of liquidation of commission fees is unbalanced.

  「化解之途」

  Solutions

  对于上述种种难题,合资铁路投资者也有一些局部缓解之道。

  As for the above-mentioned problems, investors have found out some solutions to tackle part of them.

  合九(合肥-九江)铁路北起合肥,贯穿安徽省西南地区,至湖北省黄梅县境内与京九铁路接轨,总长320公里,总投资32.5亿元,由铁道部和安徽省共同投资建设。由于运量不足、负债过高,合九铁路自1997年开始拖欠开行本息,最高时欠息达到5400万元,逾期本金3500万元,资产负债率一度高达72%。

  Take Hefei-Jiujing railway for example. The railway starts from Hefei, capital of Anhui province. It traverses the south-west of Anhui province and connects Beijing-Jiulong railway in Huang Mei city in Hubei province. The total length of the line is 320 km, and the total investment reaches 3.25 billion yuan. The line is co-financed by MOR and Anhui province. Owing to lack of transportation capacity and heavy debt, the railway began to default on CDB’s interest on principal, which once amounted to 54 million yuan. And the overdue principal reached 35 million yuan. The ratio of liabilities to assets once reached up to 72%.

  为化解该项目风险,2002年末,铁道部和安徽省按2∶1的比例为合九公司共同注入资本金2.6亿元,偿还了亚行、开行、信达资产管理公司等的债务,并由信达资产管理公司核销部分债务,开行给予贷款展期,使合九公司资产负债结构有了较大的改善,随后,该公司连续两年盈利,提前归还了开行部分贷款。

  To lower the investment risk, MOR and Anhui provincial government jointly invested 260 million yuan (in the proportion of 2 to 1) in the project at the end of 2002. And then it repaid loans to The Asian Development Bank, CDB, and China Cinda Asset Management. Then China Cinda Asset Management verified and wrote off part of debt. CDB extended rollover loans to the line. Through these efforts, the liability of company has been greatly ameliorated. In the following two years, the company made profits and paid back part of loans to CDB in advance.

  金温铁路起于浙江金华市,终于温州市,是浙江内陆通往沿海的交通动脉,总里程252公里。金温铁路最早由铁道部、浙江省和香港联盈兴业有限公司共同投资,1998年4月全线通车前夕,香港联盈兴业有限公司将股权悉数转让给铁道部和浙江省,金温铁路变为铁道部和浙江省分别持股45%和55%。金温铁路项目总投资28亿元,资本金仅占26%,负债率偏高导致企业的偿债压力沉重。为解决项目资本金偏低问题,2002年,铁道部和浙江省按股比替金温公司承担了2.5亿元债务,其中铁道部承担开行1.1亿元贷款,作为资本金投入;浙江省将原来省财政借款1.4亿元作为资本金投入。实施增资减债后,金温铁路资本金比例提高到35%,偿债压力有所减缓。

  Another example is Jinhua-Wenzhou Railway. The line starts from Jinhua city, Zhejiang province, and ends in Wenzhou city, which is also in Zhejiang province. The line is an artery railway linked Zhejiang’s inland to the coastal areas. The total length is 252 km. The line is co-financed by MOR and Hong Kong Lianying Xingye Co. Ltd. Upon the completion in April 1998, Hong Kong Lianying Xingye Co. Ltd. transferred its entire equity stakes to MOR and Zhejiang provincial government. So MOR and Zhejiang provincial government hold 45% and 55% of the railway’s shares, respectively. The gross investment is 2.8 billion yuan, but the registered capital only occupies 26%. The high debt ratio imposes great pressure to the company. To solve the problem, MOR and Zhejiang provincial government assume 250 million yuan debt in proportion, among which 110 million is assumed by MOR as a registered capital. Zhejiang provincial government also invests another 140 million (which is extended by Zhejiang Provincial Financial Bureau) as a form of registered capital.  Because the debt was transferred into investment capital, the ratio of registered capital accounts for 35%. The pressure of debt repayment is greatly lightened.

  除了以上措施,还有的项目通过将一个区域内的几条合资铁路进行重组,实现规模化经营,减轻公司债务压力。这些化解方式总体而言,“万变不离其宗”,即由政府出面,组织增资减债,化解风险。不过,这些问题都是由现行铁路制度的局限而产生,在制度变革突破前,种种化解之途只能是“头痛医头、脚痛医脚”。“只有通过制度建设形成防范风险的长效机制,才能吸引更多的投资者,为铁路发展提供融资保证。”马健如是说。■

  Besides the measures just mentioned above, some other measures, for example, to reorganize several co-financed lines in the same area, are taken to realize scale management and lighten pressure of debt repayment. Generally, all these measures remain essentially the same despite all apparent changes. That is to say, the government takes the lead to assume part of debt and transfer the debt into investment capital so as to lower the risk of investment. However, the existed problems can be traced into the limitation of the existed railway system. Any solution is a take-stopgap-measure if no reform of railway system is performed. Ma Jian said “only the institutional improvement can form long-term mechanism to strengthen the ability to guard against investment risk, to attract more investors and to provide guarantee for further capital raising.”

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